00100	                         STANFORD UNIVERSITY
00200	                     COMPUTER SCIENCE DEPARTMENT
00300	
00400	                            July 27, 1972

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01200	Professor C.A.R. Hoare
01300	Department of Computer Science
01400	The Queen's University of Belfast
01500	Belfast BT7 1NN
01600	Northern Ireland
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01800	Dear Tony,
01900	
02000		Enclosed are two pamphlets about earthquakes that I picked up
02100	at a recent meeting on "urban technology" in San Francisco.  There is
02200	considerable difference of opinion around here about how much  danger
02300	earthquakes  present  in  California.   That there will be more large
02400	earthquakes in this area is regarded as certain.  It is believed that
02500	modern  wooden houses not on the fault that slips will not be damaged
02600	enough to injure occupants except by broken glass.  No  steel  framed
02700	buildings   have   been  damaged  in  earthquakes  enough  to  injure
02800	occupants, but few have been subjected to quakes of  magnitude  above
02900	8.   The  recent  Los  Angeles  earthquake killed 45 in one old style
03000	unreinforced masonry hospital and less than 10 in the whole  rest  of
03100	Los  Angeles.  Freeway bridges and earth dams showed themselves quite
03200	subject to damage.
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03400		Your earthquake worries amused people  here,  because  hardly
03500	anyone  spends  much  time  worrying  about  it  or allows earthquake
03600	considerations to influence personal decisions.  I think this  apathy
03700	can  be  rationalized  by  the argument that if you want to vary your
03800	actions so as to  increase  your  personal  safety,  there  are  more
03900	cost-effective  ways  of doing so.  Namely, live as close to work and
04000	shopping as  possible  so  as  to  minimize  exposure  to  automobile
04100	accident  which  presents at least 100 times the personal danger even
04200	for careful drivers.
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04400		I will write about your other questions later.
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04600						Best Regards
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04800	
04900						John McCarthy